Overview
- Under the current policies scenario, global oil demand is projected to reach about 113 million barrels per day by 2050, while in the stated policies case it peaks around 2030 before falling.
- The IEA says these are scenarios rather than forecasts and warns emissions-cutting momentum has weakened, with CO2 roughly flat to 2050 under current policies and all scenarios overshooting 1.5°C.
- Electricity use accelerates into an 'Age of Electricity' as data-centre and AI loads grow, with 2025 data-centre investment estimated at $580 billion, surpassing annual spending on new oil supply, and renewables led by solar remaining the fastest-growing source.
- Final investment decisions for LNG have surged, putting about 300 billion cubic metres of new export capacity on track to start by 2030, a roughly 50% increase in available supply.
- The centre of demand growth shifts toward India, which the IEA expects to be the largest source of additional energy and oil use to 2035, even as about 730 million people still lack access to electricity.