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IEA Restores ‘Current Policies’ Outlook as New Data Show Record 2025 CO2

The return of a Current Policies Scenario follows intense political scrutiny of the agency’s transition modeling.

A view of the logo of the International Energy Agency in Paris, France, December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo
Sheep graze under solar panels in Hainan prefecture of western China's Qinghai province on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
FILE - The Kyger Creek Power Plant, a coal-fired power plant, operates April 14, 2025, near Cheshire, Ohio. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel, File)
FILE - A BP oil refinery operates in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, Oct. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)

Overview

  • World Energy Outlook 2025 reintroduces the Current Policies Scenario for the first time since 2019, projecting oil demand around 113 million barrels per day by 2050 and continued growth in oil and gas.
  • In the Stated Policies Scenario, oil demand peaks around 2030 and then declines, with renewables expanding fastest across all cases and electricity use accelerating in a shift the IEA calls the Age of Electricity.
  • The IEA says the world exceeds the 1.5°C limit in every scenario, with emissions under current policies staying roughly flat through 2050 and temperatures only falling in the net‑zero pathway that relies on carbon removal.
  • The report highlights near‑term supply and demand shifts, including about 300 billion cubic metres of new LNG export capacity starting by 2030 and an estimated $580 billion in global data‑centre investment in 2025.
  • A separate Global Carbon Budget analysis finds fossil CO2 emissions rising about 1.1% in 2025 to a new record, warning the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is nearly exhausted.