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IEA Restores Conservative Outlook, Says Oil and Gas Could Grow to 2050

Reinstating a fossil‑heavy scenario sharpens the policy choice facing governments at COP30.

A view of the logo of the International Energy Agency in Paris, France, December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo
Sheep graze under solar panels in Hainan prefecture of western China's Qinghai province on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
FILE - The Kyger Creek Power Plant, a coal-fired power plant, operates April 14, 2025, near Cheshire, Ohio. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel, File)
FILE - A BP oil refinery operates in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, Oct. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)

Overview

  • The World Energy Outlook reintroduces a Current Policies Scenario for the first time since 2019, alongside Stated Policies and Net Zero pathways, with the agency stressing these are scenarios, not forecasts.
  • Under current policies, oil demand is projected to reach about 113 million barrels per day by mid‑century and gas use also rises, while in the stated policies case oil demand peaks around 2030.
  • The report shows the world exceeding the Paris 1.5°C limit in all scenarios, with CO2 emissions roughly flat to 2050 under current policies.
  • Electricity demand grows much faster than overall energy use in every pathway, renewables led by solar expand the fastest, and data‑center investment is estimated at $580 billion in 2025, surpassing annual spending on new oil supply.
  • LNG build‑out accelerates with roughly 300 bcm of new export capacity starting by 2030, and the reintroduced scenario draws political fire as U.S. officials praise it and climate groups call it politically motivated.