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IEA Outlook Revives Current-Policies Case, Pairing Fossil Growth Projections With Rapid Renewables Surge

The influential COP30 release warns that only a net-zero pathway keeps the 1.5C goal within reach.

Overview

  • The IEA says renewables, led by solar, grow faster than any other major energy source as global power demand climbs roughly 40% over the next decade.
  • Investment in data centers is expected to reach $580 billion in 2025, exceeding the roughly $540 billion directed to oil supply.
  • In the reinstated Current Policies Scenario, oil demand rises to about 113 million barrels a day by 2050 and roughly 300 bcm of new LNG export capacity comes online by 2030.
  • Under the Stated Policies Scenario, oil demand peaks around 2030, yet all pathways other than net zero overshoot 1.5C this century.
  • India emerges as the largest source of demand growth and has already reached 50% non‑fossil grid‑connected capacity, with major grid and storage build‑outs still needed.