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IEA Outlook Restores ‘Current Policies’ Path, Saying Oil and Gas Could Grow to 2050

The agency reintroduces a baseline scenario after U.S. pressure, highlighting that current actions fall short of the Paris 1.5°C limit.

FILE - Workers put switches and connectors on solar panels after they come out of automated framing at a ReNew solar panel manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Jaipur, India, Aug. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup, File)
A view of the logo of the International Energy Agency in Paris, France, December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo
Sheep graze under solar panels in Hainan prefecture of western China's Qinghai province on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
FILE - The Kyger Creek Power Plant, a coal-fired power plant, operates April 14, 2025, near Cheshire, Ohio. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel, File)

Overview

  • In the revived Current Policies Scenario, global oil demand reaches about 113 million barrels per day by 2050 as overall CO2 emissions remain near today’s levels.
  • In the Stated Policies Scenario, oil and coal peak around 2030 with slower declines thereafter, while renewables expand fastest across all pathways.
  • The IEA says all scenarios overshoot 1.5°C without rapid additional measures, with temperatures only easing later in its net‑zero pathway that relies on carbon removal.
  • Liquefied natural gas capacity is set to jump by roughly 300 billion cubic metres by 2030, a 50% supply increase linked partly to rising power demand from AI and data centers.
  • Global investment in data centers is expected to hit $580 billion in 2025, exceeding annual spending on new oil supply, as separate research reports record-high 2025 CO2 emissions.