Overview
- The reinstated Current Policies Scenario projects oil demand reaching about 113 million barrels per day by mid-century with continued gas growth as coal use starts to decline this decade.
- Under existing policies, global CO2 emissions remain near today’s levels in 2050 and fall only 22% in the stated-policies case, with 1.5°C exceeded in all scenarios except a net-zero pathway reliant on carbon removal.
- Electricity demand rises much faster than overall energy use across scenarios, with renewables led by solar growing the quickest even as the outlook slightly trims expected additions.
- Surging power needs from data centers and AI bolster LNG demand, with roughly 300 bcm of new export capacity coming online by 2030 after a wave of 2025 approvals and an estimated $580 billion in data center investment outpacing annual spending on new oil supply.
- The report’s framing draws political scrutiny, as U.S. officials press for fossil expansion and climate groups like Ember contend the analysis understates the pace of clean-tech adoption.