Overview
- In its World Energy Outlook 2025, the IEA reinstates a Current Policies Scenario projecting oil demand near 113 million barrels a day by 2050 and continued gas growth, with all pathways exceeding the 1.5C limit.
- Under the Stated Policies Scenario, oil and coal are still seen peaking around 2030 as renewables expand fastest and electricity demand accelerates, driven partly by data centers and AI.
- The IEA estimates 2025 investment in data centers at about $580 billion, surpassing annual spending on new oil supply, signaling shifting drivers of power demand.
- The agency highlights a sharp expansion in LNG, with roughly 300 billion cubic meters of new export capacity starting by 2030, a rise of about 50% in available supply.
- The Global Carbon Budget reports fossil-fuel CO2 at a record 38.1 gigatonnes in 2025 and pegs the remaining 1.5C budget near 170 gigatonnes—around four years of emissions at current rates—while the CPS reintroduction draws criticism over political influence and OPEC disputes peak-demand views.