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IEA Outlook Projects Nuclear Comeback as 2025 Emissions Climb, Imperiling 1.5°C

New assessments signal surging electricity demand is entrenching fossil fuel use under current policies.

Overview

  • Reintroducing its Current Policies scenario, the IEA projects global oil and gas demand will keep rising for roughly 25 years if governments do not strengthen climate measures.
  • Global nuclear capacity is set to grow at least one third by 2035, with record generation expected in 2025 and China responsible for nearly half of capacity now under construction.
  • The IEA expects about 300 billion cubic meters of additional LNG export capacity by 2030, indicating ample near‑term gas supply even as market risks persist.
  • Renewables led by solar remain the fastest‑growing sources as power demand accelerates from electrification, cooling, industry and data centers, with data center investment estimated at $580 billion this year.
  • The Global Carbon Project estimates fossil‑fuel CO2 rose about 1.1% in 2025, with a U.S. increase linked largely to electricity for data centers and AI, and the IEA cautions the 1.5°C threshold is likely to be breached within a decade.