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2h ago

IEA Outlook Adds Current-Policies Path, Projects Oil and Gas Growth to 2050 Despite Renewable Surge

Released at COP30, the report broadens its scenarios after calls to illustrate what happens if governments stop tightening energy policy.

Sheep graze under solar panels in Hainan prefecture of western China's Qinghai province on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
US energy secretary Chris Wright has criticised the IEA’s previous stance
FILE - Workers put switches and connectors on solar panels after they come out of automated framing at a ReNew solar panel manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Jaipur, India, Aug. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup, File)
FILE - Workers install panels at a solar project May 21, 2025, in Galena, Alaska. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)

Overview

  • Reinstating a Current Policies Scenario, the IEA now sees oil and gas demand rising through 2050, with oil reaching about 113 million barrels a day by mid‑century.
  • In a stark climate assessment, the world exceeds 1.5C in every pathway and reaches roughly 2.9C by 2100 under current policies, with temperatures only falling below 1.5C late in the century in the net‑zero case.
  • Electricity use is set to jump by around 40% over the next decade as EVs, heating and cooling, and AI/data centres lift demand, while renewables led by solar grow fastest in every scenario.
  • Investment in data centres is expected to hit about $580 billion in 2025, surpassing roughly $540 billion for new oil supply, underscoring urgent needs for grids, storage and system resilience.
  • India emerges as the largest source of global energy‑demand growth to 2035, leading the increase in oil use and contributing major gains in electricity and coal.