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IEA Outlook 2025: Renewables Race Ahead as Current Policies Scenario Signals Rising Oil Demand

Fresh data show fossil emissions hitting a new high this year, underscoring the risk that policy choices outweigh technology trends.

Overview

  • The International Energy Agency reports that clean power grows faster than any other energy source in all scenarios, led by rapid global solar deployment.
  • A reinstated Current Policies Scenario, reported to follow U.S. pressure, projects oil and gas demand rising toward 2050 with end‑century warming nearing 3°C.
  • The IEA says limiting warming to 1.5°C remains technically feasible only with immediate deep action, including no new oil or gas projects.
  • The outlook finds that a U.S. policy reversal would leave installed U.S. renewable capacity in 2035 more than 30% below last year’s projection even as global additions accelerate.
  • The Global Carbon Project estimates fossil CO2 emissions will hit a record in 2025, highlighting the gap between renewable growth and total emissions.