Overview
- The IEA’s December report still projects record oversupply next year but trims the estimate to 3.84 million barrels per day, roughly 230,000 bpd less than in November.
- Global oil supply fell by 610,000 bpd in November from October and by 1.5 million bpd from September’s high, with OPEC+ outages and sharper declines from Russia and Venezuela driving the drop.
- Trafigura warns of a potential 2026 “super glut,” citing long‑lead projects set to add new barrels and weaker demand, with major additions expected from Brazil and Guyana.
- Bank trackers report visible inventories have been building and the EIA and Wall Street forecasts point to sub‑$60 average prices in 2026, even as the futures curve stays relatively flat without contango until October 2026.
- Analysts caution that prolonged low prices could suppress upstream spending, with the EIA expecting U.S. output to flatten in 2026 and several forecasts flagging a possible supply shortfall after 2027.