Overview
- The International Energy Agency reduced its 2026 Russia crude forecast by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd and cut the 2027 outlook by 235,000 bpd to 8.6 million bpd.
- The IEA estimates Russian production fell to about 8.36 million bpd in August, a month-on-month drop of roughly 200,000 bpd while OPEC reported a similar August figure of 8.718 million bpd.
- The agency says Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged refineries and knocked refining capacity down by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, with some assessments exceeding 700,000 bpd at peak moments.
- Western sanctions are limiting access to specialized equipment, spare parts and foreign technical expertise, which the IEA says is slowing repairs and preventing quick recovery of damaged facilities.
- The cuts have produced fuel shortages inside Russia and led Moscow to prioritize crude exports and restrict refined product shipments, a trend that could tighten global refined-fuel flows given the lack of official Russian output data since April 2023.