Overview
- The IEA now projects global supply growth of about 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in 2026, each roughly 100,000 bpd higher than last month’s estimate.
- Global output in October stood 6.2 million bpd above the start of 2025, with increases split between OPEC+ and non‑OPEC producers, led by a 1.5 million bpd rise from Saudi Arabia and 120,000 bpd from Russia.
- Global oil inventories reached just under 8 billion barrels in September, the highest since July 2021, driven by an 80 million‑barrel surge in waterborne storage, with preliminary October data pointing to further builds.
- The agency nudged up demand growth forecasts by 80,000 bpd for 2025 and 70,000 bpd for 2026 on stronger petrochemical feedstock needs.
- OPEC’s latest outlook implies a surplus of about 20,000 bpd for 2026, while the IEA notes new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have not yet materially curbed Russian exports.