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yesterday

IEA Forecasts Peak Oil Demand by 2029 as Capacity Growth Outpaces Consumption

The forecast stands in contrast to OPEC’s view of continued demand growth beyond 2030

Cranes sit at an oil rig facility, in Lagos Nigeria, June 13, 2025. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev//File Photo
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 28: An oil pumpjack (R) operates as another (C) stands idle on March 28, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. U.S. oil prices fell 7 percent to $105.96 per barrel while Brent crude lost 6.8 percent over demand concerns as China begins to implement a mass COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Global oil demand is projected to peak at about 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029 before dipping in 2030.
  • China’s oil consumption is expected to reach its high point in 2027 following a surge in electric vehicle sales and rail projects.
  • India is forecast to add around 1 million barrels per day by 2030, making it the fastest-growing market in the forecast period.
  • Slower EV adoption in the United States and lower gasoline prices have lifted the 2030 demand outlook by about 1.1 million barrels per day even as US consumption peaks this year.
  • Production capacity is set to expand by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030 and recent Israel-Iran tensions have briefly pushed prices above $74 a barrel.