Particle.news
Download on the App Store
9 ARTICLES
·
6h ago

IEA Forecasts Oil Demand Peaking in 2029 Against Rising Middle East Supply Risks

Robust production capacity expansion combined with slowing consumption forecasts a surplus by 2030 despite regional conflicts threatening supply security

Cranes sit at an oil rig facility, in Lagos Nigeria, June 13, 2025. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev//File Photo
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 28: An oil pumpjack (R) operates as another (C) stands idle on March 28, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. U.S. oil prices fell 7 percent to $105.96 per barrel while Brent crude lost 6.8 percent over demand concerns as China begins to implement a mass COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Image

Overview

  • The IEA projects global oil demand will reach 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029 and then decline slightly in 2030.
  • China’s oil consumption is forecast to peak in 2027 as surging electric vehicle adoption and expanded high-speed rail and natural gas truck use curb demand growth.
  • United States demand is set to rise further, with lower gasoline prices and slower EV uptake boosting the 2030 forecast by 1.1 million bpd.
  • Global production capacity is expected to exceed 114.7 million bpd by 2030, growing by more than 5 million bpd and pointing to an upcoming surplus.
  • The conflict between Israel and Iran has driven prices above $74 a barrel and underscored geopolitical threats to supply security.