Overview
- Russia’s November oil exports fell by roughly 400–420 kb/d to about 6.9 mb/d, and export revenues dropped to about $11 billion, the lowest monthly level since February 2022, the IEA reported.
- The agency linked the decline to tighter U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s shadow fleet and Black Sea facilities, which it said cut almost half of November seaborne flows through the region as Baltic shipments partly compensated.
- Global oil supply slid by about 610 kb/d in November, with OPEC responsible for more than three‑quarters of the decline, driven by disruptions in sanctioned producers such as Russia and Venezuela, the IEA said.
- In its December report, the IEA lowered its 2026 surplus forecast to roughly 3.84 mb/d and raised demand growth estimates for 2025–26, while trimming supply growth on weaker expectations for sanctioned countries.
- Despite geopolitical frictions, including a U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan tanker and reports of further interceptions, Brent hovered near $61 and WTI near $58 on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss of about 3–4% on persistent glut concerns.