Overview
- The IEA’s December report now projects supply exceeding demand by about 3.84 million barrels per day in 2026, down from 4.09 million bpd in its prior outlook.
- OPEC’s latest data point to a market that broadly matches 2026 demand, and OPEC+ plans to pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year.
- Trafigura reiterates a warning of a potential “super glut” as long-planned projects, including in Brazil and Guyana, meet softer demand growth.
- Brent hovered near $61 and WTI near $58 after a fresh slide, with prices briefly rebounding on U.S. moves to seize Venezuelan oil tankers that could constrain flows.
- The IEA cites a recent halt in the supply surge, with output dips tied to outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan and reduced Russian and Venezuelan exports, even as large volumes remain stored at sea.