Overview
- Global coal demand is set to rise 0.5% in 2025 to a record 8.85 billion tonnes before leveling off and edging lower by the end of the decade, the IEA reports.
- China’s consumption was largely flat in 2025 and is forecast to fall to roughly 4,879 Mt by 2027 as renewables and nuclear expand, making China the decisive driver of the global trajectory.
- India is projected to deliver the largest absolute increase through 2030, adding about 200–225 Mt with demand growing around 3% annually, while Southeast Asia records the fastest growth at over 4% per year.
- U.S. coal use rebounded in 2025 on higher natural gas prices and a Trump executive order supporting coal plants, though the IEA says China’s expected decline outweighs the U.S. boost.
- The outlook carries sizable risks tied to China’s electricity demand, renewable integration and coal-to-chemicals projects, and analysts note metallurgical coal demand appears to have flattened.