Overview

• IDC now expects worldwide smartphone shipments to grow 1.0% year over year in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, up from its May projection of 0.6%.
• iOS shipments are forecast to rise 3.9% this year, identified as the primary driver of the upgrade, with the market roughly flat without Apple.
• Regional outlook diverges: the United States is projected at +3.6% and Middle East & Africa at +6.5%, offsetting an approximate 1% decline in China, with Asia Pacific excluding China at +0.8%.
• Vendors emphasize premiumization, with average selling prices up about 5% and overall market value up roughly 6% in 2025.
• Technology mix shifts continue, with roughly 370 million GenAI-capable phones expected this year (around 30% share) and foldables growing about 6% year over year, while the forecast assumes current U.S. smartphone tariff exemptions remain in place.