Overview

• Shipments are now projected at 1.24 billion units for 2025, up from a prior 0.6% growth view, with iOS up 3.9% and overall volumes likely flat or negative without Apple’s gains.
• Regional expectations show the U.S. up 3.6%, Middle East & Africa up 6.5%, and Asia Pacific excluding China up 0.8%, with China down 1% as subsidies fade.
• IDC forecasts a roughly 5% increase in average selling prices and a 6% rise in market value as vendors prioritize premium devices over volume.
• About 370 million GenAI-capable phones are expected to ship in 2025 at roughly a 30% share, while foldables are set for about 6% growth yet remain a niche through 2029.
• The outlook assumes smartphone tariff exemptions remain in place in the U.S., with IDC warning that policy shifts could quickly alter demand.