IDC Projects Record 2026 Smartphone Decline on Global Memory Shortage

Overview

• Global shipments are now forecast at about 1.1 billion in 2026, down 12.9% from 2025 in the steepest annual drop on record.
• Average selling prices are expected to rise around 14% this year as manufacturers prioritize higher‑margin devices.
• Entry‑level supply is under strain, with sub‑$100 phones—about 170 million units last year—now deemed uneconomic, prompting spec cuts and model cancellations.
• The impact is uneven, with budget Android brands most exposed while premium‑focused Apple and Samsung are comparatively less affected.
• Industry leaders say memory availability, not just price, will set market size, with DRAM and NAND shortages projected to extend into 2027.