Overview

• IDC now projects 1.24 billion smartphones will ship in 2025, a 1.0% year-over-year increase after an upgrade from its May forecast of 0.6%.
• Accelerated 3.9% iOS growth is the primary driver of the improvement, and IDC says the market would be flat or declining without Apple.
• Growth is set to be uneven, with the United States up 3.6%, Middle East and Africa up 6.5%, and Asia Pacific excluding China up 0.8%, offset by a 1% decline in China as subsidies fade.
• Average selling prices are expected to rise about 5% in 2025 with overall market value up roughly 6% as vendors emphasize premium devices and financing-led affordability.
• IDC forecasts more than 370 million GenAI smartphones in 2025—about 30% of shipments—with share topping 70% by 2029, and expects foldables to grow around 6% in 2025 yet remain under 3% of shipments by decade’s end.