Overview

• Global shipments are now forecast at 1.24 billion units in 2025, up 1% year over year after an upgrade from 0.6%, with iPhone shipments expected to rise about 3.9% and without that lift the market would be flat or negative.
• IDC projects 2025 growth of 3.6% in the U.S., 6.5% in the Middle East and Africa, and 0.8% in Asia Pacific excluding China, offsetting an estimated 1% decline in China as subsidies fade.
• Average selling price is expected to climb roughly 5% and market value about 6% as vendors emphasize premium features, trade‑in and financing programs, and ecosystem stickiness to counter long replacement cycles.
• IDC forecasts more than 370 million GenAI‑capable smartphones in 2025, about 30% of shipments, with adoption projected to surpass 70% by 2029 as capabilities reach mid‑range devices.
• Foldable phones are seen growing 6% in 2025 yet remaining niche at under 3% of shipments by 2029, with the outlook still vulnerable to shifts in trade policy that could end current tariff exemptions.