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ICRA Upgrades Outlook: Organised Gold Loans to Hit ₹15 Trillion by March 2026, ₹18 Trillion in FY27

ICRA cites elevated gold prices with a slowdown in unsecured lending as drivers of value-led expansion.

Overview

  • ICRA projects NBFC gold-loan assets under management to grow 30–35% in FY2026, supported by diversification and India’s sizeable untapped household gold.
  • The organised market reached ₹11.8 trillion as of March 2025 after expanding at roughly 26% CAGR during FY2024–FY2025.
  • Banks hold about 82% of the organised gold-loan market as of March 2025, while NBFCs account for 18% with ₹2.4 trillion in AUM by June 2025 and the top four controlling 81% of that segment.
  • Growth has been primarily value-led, with gold collateral tonnage rising only about 1.7% CAGR in FY2020–FY2025 as average ticket sizes more than doubled and branch networks grew near 3.3% CAGR.
  • ICRA warns of intensifying competition and potential yield pressure as new entrants and banks scale up, making operating efficiency and risk-controls critical for lenders.