Overview
- ICRA projects India’s solar PV module capacity to rise from about 109 GW today to more than 165 GW by March 2027, outpacing expected demand.
- New US trade measures have curtailed Indian exports, pushing redirected volumes into the domestic market and intensifying pricing pressure.
- Domestic installations are estimated at 45–50 GWdc annually against expected module output of 60–65 GW, signaling persistent overcapacity.
- Policy supports such as ALMM, basic customs duty, and the PLI scheme are driving expansion, with ALMM List-II from June 2026 expected to lift cell capacity to roughly 100 GW by December 2027 from 17.9 GW now.
- Costs remain a hurdle, with modules using domestic cells estimated 3–4 cents per watt higher than those using imported cells, China dominates upstream supply chains, and ICRA expects consolidation as FY2025 margins near 25% come under pressure.