Overview
- ICRA expects the Centre to set a fiscal deficit target of about 4.3% of GDP for 2026–27 in its upcoming budget.
- The ratings agency projects a roughly 14% increase in capital expenditure to around Rs 13.1 lakh crore next year.
- Gross dated market issuances are estimated by ICRA at about Rs 16.9 lakh crore, while India Ratings pegs gross borrowings near Rs 16.14 lakh crore and net at Rs 10.6 lakh crore.
- Analysts anticipate a debt-to-GDP decline of about one percentage point in 2026–27 to roughly 55.1–55.5%, with some estimates implying a fiscal deficit near 4.2%.
- These projections could be revised after a new GDP series and guidance from the 16th Finance Commission, with 8th Central Pay Commission costs likely to lift committed expenditure from FY28.