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ICRA Reports Stronger India Inc Credit in H1 FY26 With 2.9x Upgrade Ratio

ICRA lifts its FY26 GDP forecast to 6.5% on confidence that policy support will cushion US tariff headwinds.

Overview

  • ICRA recorded 214 upgrades versus 75 downgrades in H1 FY26, resulting in a Credit Ratio of 2.9x.
  • Defaults stayed low at 0.2% with six cases reported, including one investment‑grade NBFC focused on MSME lending that faced liquidity stress after covenant breaches.
  • Power, realty and hospitality were major drivers of upgrades, reflecting stronger business fundamentals and lower project risks.
  • ICRA warns that a 50% US tariff on many Indian goods threatens exporters in cut and polished diamonds, textiles and seafood, with merchandise exports at risk of a 4–5% YoY contraction if the tariffs persist through March 2026.
  • Corporate leverage and liquidity improved over the past decade, with total debt to OPBDITA down to 2.1x and cash plus investments rising to 46% of debt, reinforcing resilience alongside domestic demand supports.