Overview

• GVA growth is pegged at 6.4%, with a positive GDP–GVA gap of about 30 basis points on stronger net indirect taxes and lower subsidies.
• Services GVA is projected to hit an eight-quarter high near 8.3%, offsetting slower industry at about 4.0% and agriculture near 4.5% versus Q4 FY25.
• Central gross capital expenditure rose 52% year-on-year to Rs 2.8 trillion in Q1, 24 states’ capital outlay and net lending increased 23% to Rs 1.1 trillion, and new project announcements nearly doubled to Rs 5.8 trillion.
• Government indirect-tax receipts grew 11.3% in Q1 after a contraction in Q4, supporting headline GDP through higher net indirect taxes.
• ICRA says improving transmission of monetary easing and planned GST rationalisation could lift urban consumption during the festive period.