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ICRA Forecasts India’s Gold Jewellery Market to Gain 12–14% in Value Despite Falling Volumes

Rising gold prices along with more auspicious days drive up spending despite falling physical volumes

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Overview

  • ICRA projects value of domestic gold jewellery consumption will rise 12–14% in FY26 while volumes decline by 9–10%.
  • Gold prices surged 33% in FY25 and are expected to remain elevated, trading about 20% above last year’s average.
  • Demand for gold bars and coins is forecast to grow roughly 10%, comprising around 35% of total gold demand.
  • Organised large retailers are set to post 14–16% revenue growth year-over-year through store expansion and market share gains from the unorganised sector.
  • Jewellers’ operating margins are expected to widen by 30 basis points to 7.2%, though net margin gains will be limited to about 10 basis points due to higher financing costs.