Overview
- Iceland’s climate minister said the potential failure of the Atlantic overturning circulation has been formally flagged to the National Security Council as an existential threat, triggering cross‑government preparedness work.
- The government is assessing policies and research needs for worst‑case scenarios, including risks to food and energy security, infrastructure, fisheries and marine transport.
- New peer‑reviewed research reports a detectable mid‑depth temperature fingerprint linked to a weakening circulation and suggests the system could begin to fail within decades, though timing remains uncertain.
- A separate modeling study finds conventional freshwater “hosing” experiments can overstate the circulation’s sensitivity because the impact varies sharply by season, location and source of meltwater around Greenland.
- Northern European agencies are funding additional study and planning for potential impacts, while UK officials say an abrupt collapse this century is unlikely, and some scientists warn the risk may be underestimated.