Ibovespa Tops 150,000, Real Gains as Focus Trims 2025 Inflation Ahead of Copom Decision

Overview

• The Central Bank’s Focus survey lowered the 2025 IPCA forecast to 4.55%, a sixth straight weekly decline that still sits just above the 4.5% target ceiling.
• Markets widely expect the Copom to keep the Selic at 15% this week, with investors looking to the statement for signals on the timing of future easing.
• The Ibovespa closed at 150,454 points, up 0.61%, supported by gains in banks and Petrobras as equities extended a multi-session rally.
• The dollar fell 0.42% to R$5.357, with the real outperforming peers as carry attractiveness and equity inflows offset external dollar firmness.
• Local long-dated DI rates inched higher in line with rising U.S. Treasury yields, as a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and mixed Fed remarks kept global rates volatile.