Ibovespa Near Record on Petrobras Gains as Long Brazil Yields Rise on U.S. Rate Caution

Overview

• The index rose 0.37% to 157,739, closing just shy of its all‑time high and advancing 2.39% on the week.
• Petrobras shares climbed as global oil prices gained more than 2%, while Vale slipped 0.61% after soft China data and an additional US$500 million provision tied to a UK court decision.
• The dollar finished the day nearly unchanged around R$5.30 but fell about 0.72%–0.74% on the week, leaving the real near multi‑month highs.
• Brazil’s futures curve steepened as medium and long rates edged higher—DI Jan/2029 to 12.835% and DI Jan/2031 to 13.175%—tracking a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and lower market odds of a December Fed cut (roughly 54% hold vs. 46% cut).
• Economists and investors continued to pencil in the start of a Selic easing cycle between January and March 2026, with total reductions of roughly 2.5 to 3 percentage points.