Particle.news
Download on the App Store

IBM CEO Warns $8 Trillion AI Buildout Doesn’t Pencil Out

He says servicing that scale of investment would require roughly $800 billion of profit.

Overview

  • Arvind Krishna estimates a one‑gigawatt AI data center costs about $80 billion, implying roughly $8 trillion if industry plans reach around 100 gigawatts.
  • He argues the returns won’t materialize, saying about $800 billion in profit would be needed just to cover interest, and he puts current technologies’ odds of reaching AGI at roughly 0–1%.
  • Krishna warns accelerator chips will age out fast, forcing operators to refresh data‑center hardware roughly every five years.
  • Despite the warnings, spending is still rising as Alphabet lifts its 2025 capex outlook to $91–93 billion and Amazon to about $125 billion.
  • Analysts flag mounting power constraints, with Goldman Sachs reporting data‑center load around 55 gigawatts today (about 14% AI) and projecting roughly 84 gigawatts by 2027.