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Ibex Soars in 2025 to Record Highs as Bank Rally Dominates, Exposing Concentration Risks

A narrow advance driven by big banks leaves valuations stretched, heightening vulnerability to shocks.

Overview

  • Ibex 35 is up about 48% for 2025, surpassing 17,000 points with total market value near €1 trillion.
  • Bank stocks led the surge, with Santander up 122%, BBVA 109% and CaixaBank 97%, while Inditex rose 13% and Iberdrola 36%, and the five heavyweights now account for roughly 60% of the index.
  • Supportive drivers included lower oil prices, controlled inflation with stable rates and robust corporate profits boosted by productivity gains from AI adoption.
  • Gold and silver beat equities with gains of roughly 70% and about 140–150%, signaling strong demand for portfolio hedges.
  • Analysts warn of valuation and concentration risk, pointing to Denmark’s 23% market drop tied to Novo Nordisk (-47%) and Orsted (-64%) as a cautionary example, while a Banco de España survey finds 49% of SMEs report harm from political tensions.