Overview
- Global passengers are forecast to reach 5.2 billion in 2026, with a record 83.8% load factor and an industry net profit of $41 billion for a 3.9% margin.
- Profitability remains thin at $7.90 per passenger as total revenues reach about $1.053 trillion and return on invested capital of 6.8% lags an 8.2% cost of capital.
- Persistent supply-chain constraints are swelling aircraft backlogs, pushing average fleet age above 15 years, limiting fuel-efficiency gains to about 1%, and costing airlines an estimated $11 billion in 2025.
- IATA flags a severe SAF shortfall with about 2.4 million tonnes expected in 2026—roughly 0.8% of fuel use—as airlines plan $4.5 billion in spend and the group criticizes EU mandates and stresses availability as the main barrier.
- Air cargo remains a bright spot with volumes projected at 71.6 million tonnes, supported by e-commerce, semiconductor shipments and shifting trade flows.