Overview
- IATA reduced its 2026 profit forecast to about $23 billion on June 7, roughly half earlier estimates, as higher fuel bills and Gulf airspace disruption eroded industry margins.
- The trade body now expects the global jet fuel bill to hit about $350 billion in 2026, with jet fuel rising to roughly a third of airlines’ operating costs and profit per passenger falling sharply.
- Closures and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz have forced longer routings and cut aircraft utilization, hitting Gulf hub carriers hardest and slowing traffic flows between Europe, Asia and the Americas.
- Airlines are responding by cutting capacity, deferring routes and lifting fares, which helps revenues but raises the risk of bankruptcies and consolidation for smaller and mid‑size carriers.
- Aircraft and engine delivery delays are keeping older, less efficient jets flying, which raises fuel and maintenance costs and limits carriers’ ability to recover profitability even as passenger demand stays resilient.