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IATA Cuts 2025 Profit Forecast to $36 Billion as Trade Tensions and Supply Woes Persist

Willie Walsh cautioned that tariffs on aircraft components may worsen delivery delays eroding airlines’ narrow profit buffers

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IATA Director General Willie Walsh looks on during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, June 2, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File Photo
IATA Director General Willie Walsh speaks during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, June 2, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File Photo
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Overview

  • IATA trimmed its 2025 profit forecast to $36.0 billion from $36.6 billion, attributing the revision to U.S. tariffs and softer consumer demand
  • Industry revenues are now projected at a record $979 billion, a 1.3% increase over 2024 that falls short of the previously expected $1 trillion
  • Jet fuel prices averaging $86 per barrel are reducing costs but yield just $7.20 in profit per passenger per segment
  • A backlog of about 17,000 undelivered aircraft is straining airlines’ capacity plans and driving up maintenance and leasing expenses
  • The Asia-Pacific region is set to lead growth with a projected 9% rise in revenue passenger kilometers for 2025