Overview
- IAEA chief Rafael Grossi estimates roughly 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium likely survived June’s strikes, with its status unconfirmed due to limited access.
- Inspectors have been denied entry to key facilities including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, though Iran allowed some visits to lesser sites in recent weeks.
- Satellite imagery and analyst assessments indicate reinforced tunnels and continued work at the Natanz area known as Pickaxe Mountain, heightening concerns about hardened reconstitution.
- Analysts report Iran is accelerating production to enable mass launches of up to 2,000 missiles in a future war, aiming to overwhelm Israeli air defenses.
- Israeli officials warn they are prepared to strike again if Iran approaches a weapon capability as the JCPOA has lapsed, sanctions were reimposed, and Gulf states deepen U.S. security ties while urging restraint.