Overview

• The IAB projects unemployment will rise by about 160,000 in 2025, then begin to fall in 2026.
• The number of employed persons is forecast to edge up by 10,000 this year and to decline by 20,000 next year.
• Manufacturing is expected to shed roughly 130,000 jobs in 2025 and 70,000 in 2026, while public services, education and health add about 210,000 and 130,000 respectively, with weak trade linked to U.S. tariffs cited as a drag.
• Real GDP is forecast to grow 0.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, with employment gains constrained by fewer available workers.
• Social-security-covered employment is projected to rise by about 40,000 in each year to 34.98 million in 2025 and 35.02 million in 2026, helped by more part-time roles.