Overview
- The IAB projects average annual GDP growth to be 0.8 percentage points higher over the next 15 years, totaling about €4.5 trillion in extra value by 2040.
- Roughly 800,000 jobs could disappear and about 800,000 new roles could emerge, leaving overall employment broadly stable but redistributing work across occupations.
- Sector effects diverge, with IT and information services gaining about 110,000 positions while corporate services could lose around 120,000.
- IAB authors emphasize qualification strategies, new business models, and KI infrastructure as prerequisites, framing AI as a potential bridge to offset demographic labor shortages.
- Surveys show heavy youth use of AI tools yet low readiness for workplace tasks, and separate job‑ad data finds fewer entry‑level postings since 2022 that experts attribute mainly to economic factors rather than AI alone.