Hurricane Otis Exposes Limitations of Weather Forecasting Models Amid Climate Change Concerns

Hurricane Otis's Rapid Intensification Demonstrates Weather Models' Struggles with Unprecedented Events in Increasingly Altered Climate Patterns.

Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified into a category 5 storm within 12 hours, exposing the limitations of current weather forecasting tools and catching both residents and authorities off guard.
The tools used for weather forecasting, including computer models that blend atmospheric variables and physics, carry significant uncertainty when predicting extreme or unprecedented weather events like Hurricane Otis.
Climate change, particularly rising sea surface temperatures, is impacting the formation and intensification of hurricanes, making it more challenging to predict storm behaviors with historical data.
The existing predictive models are struggling to account for '1 in 1,000-year events' and rare combinations of variables and factors, which require simplification for effective use.
To improve weather forecasting, it is suggested to develop advanced predictive models, invest in modern technologies like AI and machine learning, enhance meteorological research, and educate the public on the uncertainties of weather forecasting.