Overview
- Two peer-reviewed studies published June 10, 2026, analyze long tide-gauge records and climate models to separate human and natural drivers of sea level change and extreme coastal water levels.
- The Climate Central-led paper finds a human signal at 97% of 519 tide gauges and attributes 58% of extreme-water days from 2000–2018 to sea level rise from human-caused warming.
- A Tulane-led study shows events that had a 1% annual chance around 1900 are on average about 12 times more likely now and roughly four times more likely because of human-driven warming.
- Local impacts are large and varied: Wellington’s 1-in-100-year coastal flood now occurs roughly twice a year in the study, and Galveston’s waterline has risen about 5.8 inches since 1900, with roughly 70% of high-water days in Southeast Texas linked to human causes.
- Both teams note their results are conservative because some analyses end by 2005 or 2018, and they say findings directly affect infrastructure, insurance and planning by requiring updated flood-frequency estimates, stronger defenses, and clearer decisions on who pays for adaptation.