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Hugh Freeze Must Exceed Projections as Auburn’s Recruiting Falters

ESPN’s SP+ model pegs Auburn at 6.9 wins against a 7.5 Vegas benchmark as the 2026 class ranks last in the SEC.

Hugh Freeze Eric Starling/Auburn Daily

Overview

  • Freeze owns a 44% career win rate after 6–7 and 5–7 seasons and is the first Auburn coach in 50 years to return for a third season following back-to-back losing records.
  • Vegas sportsbooks set Auburn’s win total at 7.5 for 2025, exceeding ESPN’s SP+ projection of 6.9 wins and heightening must-surpass pressure on Freeze.
  • The Tigers have secured only six commits for their 2026 class—dead last in the SEC—with multiple four-star prospects flipping to Georgia, Florida State and Kentucky.
  • Analyst Josh Pate warned that Auburn is “on the clock” to produce a winning season, and rival coach Lane Kiffin mocked Freeze’s offseason golf post to underscore recruiting woes.
  • Freeze is banking on five-star transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold to spark a turnaround after two losing campaigns without a bowl appearance.