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HSBC Sees Muted FY26 for Indian IT, Flags AI-Led FY27 Recovery

Client cutbacks in discretionary tech spend are keeping growth guidance cautious.

Overview

  • HSBC Global Research characterizes FY26 demand as soft, with large Indian IT firms guiding to roughly 1–5% revenue growth.
  • Analysts point to a potential FY27 pickup contingent on US and Europe macro stabilization and enterprise-scale AI adoption.
  • Q1FY26 deal activity remained strong: TCS reported $9.4 billion in TCV, Infosys booked $3.8 billion in large deals with 55% net new, and Wipro logged $5 billion in TCV including $2.7 billion in large deals and two mega deals.
  • Accenture reported $5.9 billion in FY25 generative AI bookings, underscoring growing AI-related demand.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, supply-chain pressures, and client cost optimization are driving project deferrals, and the NSE IT index has lagged broader market benchmarks.