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HSBC Sees $207 Billion Hole in OpenAI’s Finances Even With Soaring Use and Revenue

New reporting points to rising credit risks for companies funding OpenAI’s enormous data‑center buildout.

Lenders are expecting a blockbuster growth from OpenAI — an enormous ask that will require the firm to accomplish unprecedented things.
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
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Overview

  • HSBC’s updated model projects OpenAI will remain unprofitable through 2030 and require about $207 billion in additional financing to execute its plan.
  • The forecast incorporates massive multi‑year compute deals, including roughly $300 billion with Oracle, $250 billion with Microsoft, and $38 billion with AWS, plus a target of 36 gigawatts of AI capacity.
  • HSBC estimates about $792 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure costs from late 2025 to 2030 and total compute commitments near $1.4 trillion by 2033, with 2030 revenue projected around $213–215 billion.
  • A Financial Times analysis cited by Fortune says OpenAI’s partners have amassed roughly $96 billion in debt, with credit markets signaling higher risk as CDS spreads widen for firms like Oracle and CoreWeave.
  • Separate reports say banks are in talks to arrange up to $38 billion in loans to Oracle and Vantage for OpenAI‑dedicated data centers, discussions that have not been confirmed.