Overview
- HSBC projects OpenAI will still be unprofitable in 2030 despite roughly $213–$215 billion in annual revenue and an estimated 3 billion regular users.
- The analysis models about $620 billion per year in data‑center costs and references total compute commitments approaching $1.4 trillion into the next decade.
- Reported multi‑year cloud deals include approximately $300 billion with Oracle, $250 billion with Microsoft, and $38 billion with Amazon Web Services.
- HSBC highlights risk for key partners including Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, and SoftBank, noting recent market stress signals such as rising Oracle credit default swaps.
- Potential paths to close the gap include higher paid conversion, ad and licensing gains, efficiency improvements, new equity, or debt financing, which the bank deems difficult in current conditions.