Overview
- HR Ratings kept Mexico’s long‑term sovereign rating at HR BBB+ and revised the outlook from Negative to Stable, citing tighter spending and stronger revenue collection.
- The agency now projects Debt‑to‑GDP at 52.2% in 2025, a budget deficit of 3.7% of GDP, and Public Sector Borrowing Requirements at 4.3% of GDP.
- Mexico’s finance ministry said the ratification and outlook change help preserve access to financial markets on favorable terms.
- Pemex’s ratings were ratified at HR AAA (local) and HR BBB+ (global) with a Stable outlook, which HR Ratings ties to recurrent federal support and a de facto government guarantee.
- HR Ratings flagged lingering risks, including Pemex’s large liabilities, rising pension and interest costs, weak growth near 0.9% for 2025, and potential pressures from T‑MEC talks and the exchange rate; Pemex-specific projections include total debt near US$98.8 billion, net debt about US$93.7 billion, an average 2025 oil price near US$62 per barrel, and production averaging 1.408 million barrels per day in 2025–2027.