Overview
- HR Ratings reaffirmed Mexico’s sovereign rating at HR BBB+ with a stable outlook on Friday and said it does not plan any change before the next scheduled review in October or November 2026.
- The agency identified the debt‑to‑GDP ratio including Pemex contingent liabilities — reported at roughly 52% — as the single most important metric for the sovereign rating.
- HR Ratings noted the federal government is likely to continue supporting Pemex, citing guaranteed bond issuance in July 2025 and roughly $40 billion in interventions last year plus an estimated $14 billion in 2026 needs, which keeps Pemex liabilities tied to sovereign risk.
- A structural, long‑term slowdown in growth would raise downgrade risk because lower growth would push the government to borrow more to sustain social programs and subsidies, and HR Ratings singled out deep changes to the USMCA/T‑MEC as a scenario that could cut investment and growth.
- Mexico sits one notch from losing investment grade after recent S&P and Moody’s moves, and HR Ratings said low growth, limited visible fiscal consolidation, and heavy U.S. exposure could raise borrowing costs and constrain public spending options if pressures intensify.