Overview

• Fresh analysis outlines a plausible scenario in which losing big to Romania on November 18 could improve San Marino’s playoff prospects.
• Group H currently has Austria on 15 points, Bosnia on 13 and Romania on 10, with Bosnia vs Romania set to shape the final order above San Marino.
• UEFA’s playoff field will include 12 qualifying runners-up plus four Nations League group winners, creating openings if higher-ranked winners qualify directly or as runners-up.
• If Romania draw with or defeat Bosnia, a lopsided result against San Marino could push Romania ahead of Bosnia, which may bolster San Marino’s path via the Nations League slot cascade.
• San Marino’s qualifying record is 0 points with a 1:32 goal difference after a 0:10 loss to Austria, highlighting integrity concerns raised by the format’s perverse incentives.