Overview

• Using 70%–80% replacement-rate guidance, Jamie Hopkins estimates about $1.75 million is needed for a 30-year retirement without Social Security, dropping to roughly $1.1 million with average benefits.
• Under the 4% rule, a retiree would need about $2.5 million to withdraw $100,000 annually before Social Security, around $1.9 million after average benefits, and roughly $1.3 million if a $2,000 monthly pension is included.
• Key variables such as retirement age, life expectancy, and inflation materially shift targets, with costs potentially doubling over 25 years at 2%–3% inflation.
• A Northwestern Mutual survey reports Americans say they need about $1.26 million for a comfortable retirement, yet 25% have one year or less of income saved.
• Advisers warn the first year often brings higher spending and behavioral adjustments, urging near-retirees to scrutinize budgets and consider professional guidance and insurance.